November
2003: Manhattan Office, Retail
and Industrial Space Update
The Total Manhattan Office lease
market remained flat, with vacancies
increasing slightly from 47.68
million RSF to 48.00 million RSF,
as Total Direct lease availability
rose from 35.57 million RSF to
37.08 million RSF, while Total
Sublease availability fell from
12.11 million RSF to 10.92 million
RSF.
The
Manhattan Sublease market continues
to dry up, with current sublease
availabilities at a two year
low. The decline in sublease
space is in part a result of
leases simply expiring over
time and in part a result of
major corporations taking back
the sublease space they had
listed earlier, in the expectation
that with job growth they will
need the space once again.
Signs
of economic recovery abound
as evidenced by the third-quarter
GDP growth of 7.2 percent, the
resurgence of M&A deals,
and an improving IPO market.
If the stock market remains
healthy, the M&A and IPO
activity should lead to increasing
profits for Wall Street, with
potential employment gains not
far behind.
If
the economy continues to improve
and the commercial real estate
market tightens, prices will
undoubtedly rise. There however
remains a narrow window of opportunity
within which to take advantage
of the historically low rents
and landlord incentives to recast
leases by extending, expanding
or relocating.
The
education and medical sectors
are still active and growing.
Law firms are making major commitments
and small and medium sized businesses
are exploring their long term
alternatives. For example, The
Legal Aid Society signed a long-term
lease for 134,560 square feet
at 199 Water Street. While there
are still great deals to be
had landlords are trying to
remove soft dollars in terms
of free rent and work.
The
building sales market remains
robust. After last months purchase
of the GM building, many other
major building are being considered
for sale. One recently announcement:
Thor Equities LLC purchase of
321 West 44th Street for $35
million or $172 per square foot.
|
MARKET
HIGHLIGHTS |
OFFICE: |
| +
Both Total Market and Class
A vacancies increased from
47.68 million RSF to 48.00
million RSF and from 26.80
million RSF to 27.03 million
RSF. |
| +
Total Market Vacancies rose
as the increase in Total
Direct Lease availability
from 35.57 million RSF to
37.08 million RSF outweighed
the fall in Total Sublease
availabilities from 12.11
million RSF to 10.92 million
RSF. |
| +
Total Market vacancy increased
as Midtown and Midtown South
availability increased from
26.58 million RSF to 27.22
million RSF and from 9.17
to 9.28 million RSF respectively.
Total Downtown Vacancy rates
fell from 11.94 million
RSF to 11.5 million RSF.
|
| +
Total Vacant space in Midtown
increased as Total Direct
Lease space availability
rose 19.25 million RSF to
20.55 million RSF, while
Total Sublease availability
declined from 7.33 million
RSF to 6.67 million RSF.
|
| +
Midtown South Direct Lease
availability increased from
6.91 million RSF to 7.17
million RSF, while Sublease
vacancies declined from
2.26 million to 2.11 million
RSF. |
| +
Both Downtown Direct and
Sublease vacancies declined
from 9.42 million RSF to
9.36 million RSF and from
2.52 million RSF to 2.14
million RSF respectively.
|
|
RETAIL: |
| +
Total Retail availability
rose from 0.42 million RSF
to 0.48 million RSF as all
three market segments saw
increased vacancy rates.
|
| +
Midtown availability increased
from 0.17 million RSF to
0.18 million RSF. |
| +
Midtown South availability
increased from 0.22 million
RSF to 0.25 million RSF. |
| +
Total Downtown Vacancy rates
increased from 0.03 million
RSF to 0.05 million RSF. |
INDUSTRIAL: |
| +
Total Industrial Vacant
space increased from 1.03
million RSF to 1.07 million
RSF. |
| +
Total
availability in Midtown
South increased from 0.35
million RSF to 0.39 million
RSF. |
| +
Vacancies rates in Midtown
and Downtown remained unchanged. |
| |
CLASS
A (In Millions of Rentable Square Feet)
|
| |
Vacant Space |
|
Available now and in the next two years |
| |
Direct |
Sublease |
Total |
% Vacant Direct |
% Vacant Total |
% Monthly Change |
|
Direct |
Sublease |
Total |
% Monthly Change |
| Midtown |
13.15
|
5.54
|
18.68
|
10.30% |
2.09% |
|
23.46
|
9.37
|
32.82
|
16.80% |
3.32% |
| Midtown
South |
0.64
|
0.21
|
0.85
|
8.70% |
10.64% |
|
1.21
|
0.46 |
1.67 |
15.77% |
12.72% |
| Downtown
|
5.92 |
1.57
|
7.50 |
13.10% |
-3.33% |
|
10.57
|
2.40
|
12.97 |
20.64% |
14.84% |
| Total |
19.71
|
7.32
|
27.03 |
10.90% |
0.85% |
|
35.24 |
12.22
|
47.46
|
17.65%
|
6.80% |
|
| |
TOTAL
MARKET (In Millions of Rentable Square
Feet)
|
| |
Vacant Space |
|
Available now and in the next two years |
| |
Direct |
Sublease |
Total |
% Vacant Direct |
% Vacant Total |
% Monthly Change |
|
Direct |
Sublease |
Total |
% Monthly Change |
| Midtown |
20.55
|
6.67
|
27.22 |
11.20%
|
2.38% |
|
31.70
|
11.10
|
42.80 |
16.60% |
3.62% |
| Midtown
South |
7.17
|
2.11
|
9.28
|
15.30% |
1.21% |
|
9.00
|
2.64
|
11.64
|
18.42% |
3.92% |
| Downtown
|
9.36
|
2.14
|
11.50 |
14.20% |
-3.83% |
|
14.61
|
3.14
|
17.75 |
20.37% |
8.20% |
| Total |
37.08 |
10.92
|
48.00 |
12.50%
|
0.66% |
|
55.31
|
16.87
|
72.18
|
17.68% |
4.79% |
|
| |
| |
TOTAL
MARKET (In Millions of Rentable Square
Feet)
|
| |
Vacant Space |
|
Available now and in the next two years |
| |
Direct |
Sublease |
Total |
% Vacant Direct |
|
Direct |
Sublease |
Total |
% Monthly Change |
| Midtown |
0.18
|
0.00 |
0.18 |
15.10% |
|
0.27 |
0.05 |
0.32 |
23.96% |
| Midtown
South |
0.22 |
0.04 |
0.26 |
30.20% |
|
0.41 |
0.05 |
0.46 |
43.80% |
| Downtown
|
0.05 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
16.00% |
|
0.05 |
0.00 |
0.05 |
21.43% |
| Total |
0.45 |
0.04 |
0.49 |
20.80% |
|
0.73 |
0.09 |
0.83 |
31.74% |
|
| |
| |
TOTAL
MARKET (In Millions of Rentable Square
Feet)
|
| |
Vacant Space |
|
Available now and in the next two years |
| |
Direct |
Sublease |
Total |
% Vacant Direct |
|
Direct |
Sublease |
Total |
% Monthly Change |
| Midtown |
0.65 |
0.03 |
0.68 |
32.10%
|
|
0.88 |
0.03 |
0.91 |
38.77% |
| Midtown
South |
0.35 |
0.04 |
0.39 |
14.90% |
|
0.49 |
0.04 |
0.53 |
19.11% |
| Downtown
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
N/A
|
|
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
N/A
|
| Total |
1.00
|
0.07 |
1.07 |
22.50% |
|
1.38 |
0.07 |
1.45 |
28.15% |
|
|
|
| Both
Total Market and Class A vacancies increased
from 47.68 million RSF to 48.00 million
RSF and from 26.80 million RSF to 27.03
million RSF. |
|
|
|
| Total
Market Vacancies rose as the increase
in Total Direct Lease availability from
35.57 million RSF to 37.08 million RSF
outweighed the fall in Total Sublease
availabilities from 12.11 million RSF
to 10.92 million RSF. |
|
|
|
| Total
Direct Lease availability rose from 35.57
million RSF to 37.08 million RSF, while
Total Sublease vacancies declined from
12.11 million RSF to 10.92 million RSF,
a two year low. |
|
|
|
Total
Market vacancy increased as Midtown and
Midtown South availability increased from
26.58 million RSF to 27.22 million RSF
and from 9.17 to 9.28 million RSF respectively.
Total Downtown Vacancy rates fell from
11.94 million RSF to 11.5 million RSF.
|
|
|
|
| Total
Vacant space in Midtown increased as Total
Direct Lease space availability rose 19.25
million RSF to20.55 million RSF, while
Total Sublease availability declined from
7.33 million RSF to 6.67 million RSF.
|
|
|
|
Midtown
South Direct Lease availability increased
from 6.91 million RSF to 7.17 million
RSF, while Sublease vacancies declined
from 2.26 million to 2.11 million RSF.
|
|
|
|
Both
Downtown Direct and Sublease vacancies
declined from 9.42 million RSF to 9.36
million RSF and from 2.52 million RSF
to 2.14 million RSF respectively.
|
|
|
|
| Total
Retail availability rose from 0.42 million
RSF to 0.48 million RSF as all three market
segments saw increased vacancy rates.
In Midtown and Midtown South availability
increased from 0.17 million RSF to 0.18
million RSF and from 0.22 million RSF
to 0.25 million RSF respectively. Total
Downtown Vacancy rates increased from
0.03 million RSF to 0.05 million RSF.
|
|
|
|
| Total
Industrial Vacant space increased from
1.03 million RSF to 1.07 million RSF,
as total availability in Midtown South
increased from 0.35 million RSF to 0.39
million RSF. Vacancies rates in Midtown
and Downtown remained unchanged. |
|