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November 2003: Manhattan Office, Retail and Industrial Space Update
The Total Manhattan Office lease market remained flat, with vacancies increasing slightly from 47.68 million RSF to 48.00 million RSF, as Total Direct lease availability rose from 35.57 million RSF to 37.08 million RSF, while Total Sublease availability fell from 12.11 million RSF to 10.92 million RSF.

The Manhattan Sublease market continues to dry up, with current sublease availabilities at a two year low. The decline in sublease space is in part a result of leases simply expiring over time and in part a result of major corporations taking back the sublease space they had listed earlier, in the expectation that with job growth they will need the space once again.

Signs of economic recovery abound as evidenced by the third-quarter GDP growth of 7.2 percent, the resurgence of M&A deals, and an improving IPO market. If the stock market remains healthy, the M&A and IPO activity should lead to increasing profits for Wall Street, with potential employment gains not far behind.

If the economy continues to improve and the commercial real estate market tightens, prices will undoubtedly rise. There however remains a narrow window of opportunity within which to take advantage of the historically low rents and landlord incentives to recast leases by extending, expanding or relocating.

The education and medical sectors are still active and growing. Law firms are making major commitments and small and medium sized businesses are exploring their long term alternatives. For example, The Legal Aid Society signed a long-term lease for 134,560 square feet at 199 Water Street. While there are still great deals to be had landlords are trying to remove soft dollars in terms of free rent and work.

The building sales market remains robust. After last months purchase of the GM building, many other major building are being considered for sale. One recently announcement: Thor Equities LLC purchase of 321 West 44th Street for $35 million or $172 per square foot.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
OFFICE:
+ Both Total Market and Class A vacancies increased from 47.68 million RSF to 48.00 million RSF and from 26.80 million RSF to 27.03 million RSF.
+ Total Market Vacancies rose as the increase in Total Direct Lease availability from 35.57 million RSF to 37.08 million RSF outweighed the fall in Total Sublease availabilities from 12.11 million RSF to 10.92 million RSF.
+ Total Market vacancy increased as Midtown and Midtown South availability increased from 26.58 million RSF to 27.22 million RSF and from 9.17 to 9.28 million RSF respectively. Total Downtown Vacancy rates fell from 11.94 million RSF to 11.5 million RSF.
+ Total Vacant space in Midtown increased as Total Direct Lease space availability rose 19.25 million RSF to 20.55 million RSF, while Total Sublease availability declined from 7.33 million RSF to 6.67 million RSF.
+ Midtown South Direct Lease availability increased from 6.91 million RSF to 7.17 million RSF, while Sublease vacancies declined from 2.26 million to 2.11 million RSF.
+ Both Downtown Direct and Sublease vacancies declined from 9.42 million RSF to 9.36 million RSF and from 2.52 million RSF to 2.14 million RSF respectively.
RETAIL:
+ Total Retail availability rose from 0.42 million RSF to 0.48 million RSF as all three market segments saw increased vacancy rates.
+ Midtown availability increased from 0.17 million RSF to 0.18 million RSF.
+ Midtown South availability increased from 0.22 million RSF to 0.25 million RSF.
+ Total Downtown Vacancy rates increased from 0.03 million RSF to 0.05 million RSF.
INDUSTRIAL:
+ Total Industrial Vacant space increased from 1.03 million RSF to 1.07 million RSF.
+ Total availability in Midtown South increased from 0.35 million RSF to 0.39 million RSF.
+ Vacancies rates in Midtown and Downtown remained unchanged.
OFFICE  
CLASS A (In Millions of Rentable Square Feet)  
 
Vacant Space
 
Available now and in the next two years
 
Direct
Sublease
Total
% Vacant Direct
% Vacant Total
% Monthly Change
 
Direct
Sublease
Total
% Monthly Change
Midtown
13.15
5.54
18.68
10.30%
2.09%
 
23.46
9.37
32.82
16.80%
3.32%
Midtown South
0.64
0.21
0.85
8.70%
10.64%
 
1.21
0.46
1.67
15.77%
12.72%
Downtown
5.92
1.57
7.50
13.10%
-3.33%
 
10.57
2.40
12.97
20.64%
14.84%
Total
19.71
7.32
27.03
10.90%
0.85%
 
35.24
12.22
47.46
17.65%
6.80%
 
TOTAL MARKET (In Millions of Rentable Square Feet)
 
Vacant Space
 
Available now and in the next two years
 
Direct
Sublease
Total
% Vacant Direct
% Vacant Total
% Monthly Change
 
Direct
Sublease
Total
% Monthly Change
Midtown
20.55
6.67
27.22
11.20%
2.38%
 
31.70
11.10
42.80
16.60%
3.62%
Midtown South
7.17
2.11
9.28
15.30%
1.21%
 
9.00
2.64
11.64
18.42%
3.92%
Downtown
9.36
2.14
11.50
14.20%
-3.83%
 
14.61
3.14
17.75
20.37%
8.20%
Total
37.08
10.92
48.00
12.50%
0.66%
 
55.31
16.87
72.18
17.68%
4.79%
 
RETAIL  
TOTAL MARKET (In Millions of Rentable Square Feet)  
 
Vacant Space
 
Available now and in the next two years
 
Direct
Sublease
Total
% Vacant Direct
 
Direct
Sublease
Total
% Monthly Change
Midtown
0.18
0.00
0.18
15.10%
0.27
0.05
0.32
23.96%
Midtown South
0.22
0.04
0.26
30.20%
0.41
0.05
0.46
43.80%
Downtown
0.05
0.00
0.05
16.00%
0.05
0.00
0.05
21.43%
Total
0.45
0.04
0.49
20.80%
0.73
0.09
0.83
31.74%
 
INDUSTRIAL  
TOTAL MARKET (In Millions of Rentable Square Feet)  
 
Vacant Space
 
Available now and in the next two years
 
Direct
Sublease
Total
% Vacant Direct
 
Direct
Sublease
Total
% Monthly Change
Midtown
0.65
0.03
0.68
32.10%
0.88
0.03
0.91
38.77%
Midtown South
0.35
0.04
0.39
14.90%
0.49
0.04
0.53
19.11%
Downtown
0.00
0.00
0.00
N/A
0.01
0.00
0.01
N/A
Total
1.00
0.07
1.07
22.50%
1.38
0.07
1.45
28.15%

Both Total Market and Class A vacancies increased from 47.68 million RSF to 48.00 million RSF and from 26.80 million RSF to 27.03 million RSF.

Total Market Vacancies rose as the increase in Total Direct Lease availability from 35.57 million RSF to 37.08 million RSF outweighed the fall in Total Sublease availabilities from 12.11 million RSF to 10.92 million RSF.


Total Direct Lease availability rose from 35.57 million RSF to 37.08 million RSF, while Total Sublease vacancies declined from 12.11 million RSF to 10.92 million RSF, a two year low.

Total Market vacancy increased as Midtown and Midtown South availability increased from 26.58 million RSF to 27.22 million RSF and from 9.17 to 9.28 million RSF respectively. Total Downtown Vacancy rates fell from 11.94 million RSF to 11.5 million RSF.

Total Vacant space in Midtown increased as Total Direct Lease space availability rose 19.25 million RSF to20.55 million RSF, while Total Sublease availability declined from 7.33 million RSF to 6.67 million RSF.

Midtown South Direct Lease availability increased from 6.91 million RSF to 7.17 million RSF, while Sublease vacancies declined from 2.26 million to 2.11 million RSF.

Both Downtown Direct and Sublease vacancies declined from 9.42 million RSF to 9.36 million RSF and from 2.52 million RSF to 2.14 million RSF respectively.

Total Retail availability rose from 0.42 million RSF to 0.48 million RSF as all three market segments saw increased vacancy rates. In Midtown and Midtown South availability increased from 0.17 million RSF to 0.18 million RSF and from 0.22 million RSF to 0.25 million RSF respectively. Total Downtown Vacancy rates increased from 0.03 million RSF to 0.05 million RSF.

Total Industrial Vacant space increased from 1.03 million RSF to 1.07 million RSF, as total availability in Midtown South increased from 0.35 million RSF to 0.39 million RSF. Vacancies rates in Midtown and Downtown remained unchanged.
57 W 38th Street, 10th floor, New York, NY 10018    Tel: 212.258.2700    Fax: 212.409.8846    info@optimalspaces.com