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September 2008: Manhattan Office, Retail and Industrial Market Report

Midtown office rents soften as Midtown office vacancies increase. Space has increased from 650,000 square feet over the previous month to over 13,000,000 square feet. As a result landlords are being more flexible. They are trimming asking rents and being more negotiable in build out concessions.

New York Market Overview:

Many more landlords are offering pre-built office and increasing the number of free rent months to attract tenants. Manhattan's vacancy climbed two points to 7.1% percent in the second quarter, compared to last year. Landlords are offering an average of three to six months of free rent, up from two to four months from last year. They are giving tenants $40 to $50 per square foot cash allowances for build outs, up from $30 to $40 from last year.

The office leasing market has slowed down, but some big commercial deals are in the works.

While some retailers, like Steve & Barry's and Comp USA, are going bankrupt, many of the retail sectors in New York City are staying strong. The Meatpacking District, Broadway in Soho and Fifth Avenue is seeing rent increases and new retailers. The growth is largely due to international tourists, re-zoning and landlords becoming more flexible about rent to keep their from becoming vacant.

The dollar is rising in value, and this may hurt foreign tourism and real estate sales in New York City. Europeans make up about one-third of all new condominium purchasers, and 20 percent of the city's tourists. In the past month, the dollar has risen 8 percent against the Euro, and increased 21 percent compared to gold.

The turmoil on Wall Street has claimed its share of commercial real estate victims, but one bright spot may be the office leasing market. The sales side of the business has seen a tremendous drop-off, downsizing and penny pinching on the part of New York City tenants. A game of musical office spaces has spurred some activity for leasing brokers.

Midtown South's office vacancy rate ranked as the nation's lowest, despite a year-over-year increase from 3.5 percent to 5.9 percent in the second quarter. New York City, which had the most commercial leasing activity nationwide, saw average asking rents increase by $14.88 from last year's second quarter. Midtown Manhattan's average asking rent reached $83.96, tops in the nation, followed by Midtown South at $53.22 and Downtown at $50.74.

Brokers expect more big firms to sublease by the end of the year, due to the layoffs in the financial sector. Only about 1.4 million square feet of office has been subleased, less than half of the that should be shed. Financial firms do not want to dump their only to lease it back at a higher rate when the economy rebounds, or that an increase in subleases is still to come.

Due to foreign tourism, Fifth Avenue is operating like there is no recession in sight. The upscale shopping district on the avenue between 49th and 60th streets has seen four new leases already this year, including Diesel and Tommy Hilfiger, while only one new retailer leased last year, and two new retailers leased in 2006. Asking rents have risen to $2,500 per square foot, up from $1,500 per square foot from last year.

After two consecutive quarters of vacancy increases, Manhattan's office market showed a slight tightening in July from the previous month. The market's overall vacancy rate decreased to 8.6 percent, down 10 basis points from 8.7 percent in June. Manhattan's 8.6 percent vacancy rate represents a 170 basis point increase from 6.9 percent in July 2007. Class A vacancy showed an even more significant recovery, falling to 6.7 percent in July, from 7.0 percent the month before.

As of June, there were 54 blocks of large available with 100,000 square feet or larger. This inventory is up 35 percent from the same time last year. Only 15 to 20 tenants are looking for big block spaces and that the imbalances between supply and demand will likely push rents down. When incentives like free rent and generous construction allowances are factored in, some rents are already down 15 to 20 percent from last year.

Disney will not renew its lease for the World of Disney store at 711 Fifth Avenue due to rent increases



New Developments

Macklowe Properties demolished the old Drake Hotel at Park Avenue and 56th Street but has not started building 440 Park Avenue yet. Extell still has not filed plans for its West 57th and 58th Street project, which was supposed to be a 50-story hotel-condo. Starwood Capital cleared a low-rise fur shop between the Economist building and the Buckingham Hotel; plans for a Crillon hotel haven not been realized.

TriBeach has stopped work on its Eighth Avenue 37-story hotel-condo building, leaving a crater in two buildings on the lot between 46th and 47th streets. Although the plans have not been approved yet, demolition has begun and pavement plans were filed two months ago.

The Bloomberg administration has re-zoned 20% of the city's industrially zoned land. Originally, the re-zonings were supposed to promote office development, but almost all of the land has been converted to residential use.

Commercial property owners could borrow 80% of their property's value during the boom, but now have trouble getting more than 50%.

The Museum of Arts and Design is scheduled to open at 2 Columbus Circle on September 27. The nine-story, 54,000-square-foot building is about triple the size of the museum's last at West 53rd Street, and will include a 155-seat theater, a restaurant and a permanent collection display.

The New York City Planning Commission is scheduled to vote on re-zoning the area from 125th to 127th streets, between second and Third avenues, for a 1.7 million-square-foot mixed-use complex. The city owns 81% of the land designated for the project. The council is expected to pass the rezoning proposal, and developers Vornado Realty Trust, Thor Equities and General Growth Properties are already bidding on the project.

Arby's, a fast food chain, whose New York City presence includes three Queens outposts,plan to open 41 new locations in Manhattan, Brooklyn and the Bronx in the next decade.

Financing for commercial real estate is becoming increasingly difficult to secure. As a result, investment sales activity for Manhattan's commercial properties worth at least $10 million fell 59 percent in the second quarter. Investors purchased many of the assets. Loans covered an average of 50 to 70 percent of building values this year, down from 70 to 90 percent in 2007.

Sheldon Solow spent years assembling the parcels on the Consolidated Edison site on the East River for his $4 billion mixed-use project. In a legal oddity that city officials said may be unique in Manhattan, a small portion of the site is owned by the city through a 1,000-year lease drafted back in 1861. Solow controls the property through a long-term lease from the city, however, and officials said he has what amounts to full ownership. Solow agreed to acquire the entire nine acre site, along First Avenue, between 35th and 41st streets, from Con Edison in 2000 for $630 million. He has plans to build seven towers with 6.1 million square feet of commercial and residential space.

Coney Island's Astroland will reopen next summer if Thor Equities renews its lease.

Hotel occupancy rates are climbing and the industry is creating new jobs in retail and city services. But as the dollar starts to rebound against other currencies, some worry that the influx of foreigners may slow.

The city Economic Development Corp. states it has fixed problems that has threatened its plan to move a major salvage yard from Willets Point to College Point, but now College Point residents are protesting the move. The city wanted to move the Sambucci Bros. Auto Salvage to a site within the College Point Corporate Park, which is governed by an Urban Renewal Plan that prohibits salvage yards. The EDC is in the process of relocating businesses to make way for a major redevelopment of Willets Point that includes plans for a hotel, convention center, housing and retail and office space.

75 Morton Street Parents, preservationists and now the city are asking New York State to turn a former West Village warehouse into a public school. The city Department of Education sent a letter yesterday to the Empire State Development Corp. saying it is interested in turning 75 Morton Street into a middle school. The state plans to sell the building, which houses the New York State Office of Mental Retardation and Developmental Disabilities, a facility that is being moved.

Gary Barnett of Extell Development wants to change the development restrictions that were reworked and rehashed 16 years ago for Riverside South.. Extell purchased a portion of the property rezoned for Riverside South's 6,000 residential units and commercial in mid-2005 for $1.76 billion. Barnett is looking for public approval of a giant complex of residential buildings on the southern base of the development.

Accounting and consulting firm BDO Seidman leased 121,441 square feet at 100 Park Avenue.

Frankie and Johnny's, a Times Square area steakhouse, will be demolished to make way for a Related Companies/Boston Properties tower planned on the east side of Eighth Avenue between 45th and 46th streets. Next door at 726 Eighth Avenue will be cleared for the 850,000-square-foot tower.

The Nets basketball arena at Atlantic Yards might not be ready until 2011, a year later than Forest City Ratner had hoped. A state lawsuit has been filed against the project by Develop Don't Destroy Brooklyn over the use of eminent domain.

New York City's foreclosure rate was up 67 percent last month compared to July 2007. The city recorded 338 foreclosures in July. While foreclosures fell 5 percent in Queens from 188 in June, the borough still had the city's highest number of foreclosures at 178. Staten Island saw the highest increase of foreclosures compared to the prior month, up 86 percent to 54. Brooklyn's foreclosures increased from 57 in June to 63 in July, and Manhattan foreclosures rose from 9 to 14. Between June and July in the Bronx, foreclosures decreased from 36 to 29.




New York City Buildings Sold

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. is negotiating to sell its $40 billion portfolio of commercial real estate.

A group led by Boston Properties finalized the purchase of Harry Macklowe's Two Grand Central Tower buying it for $237 million and the assumption of $190 million in mortgage debt.

Real estate firms rich in cash have snatched up the most high-profile office towers on the market in Manhattan this year, while highly-leveraged players have been sidelined. Shorenstein Properties bought two of the seven office buildings that Harry Macklowe needed to unload, the Park Avenue Tower at 65 East 55th Street and 850 Third Avenue. Shorenstein, based in San Francisco, had never bought a New York City property until 2003. Just 44 Manhattan towers have been sold this year, down 57 percent from last year,

New York University purchased the Gramercy Green condo building for $275 million. NYU is turning the 21-story building at 23rd Street and Third Avenue into a dormitory.

Boston real estate investment firm, AEW, closed on the office tower at 360 Lexington Avenue and 40th Street for $90 million plus the assumption of a $38.6 million mortgage.

104 East 40th Street Geo. A. Gottlieb & Co. sold a nine-story commercial building in Midtown for $36 million to Philips International.

The owner of a 50-year lease covering a 9,300-square-foot Times Square building sold it for $33.4 million. The four-story building is occupied by Sam Ash Music, a national music chain based in Hicksville, Long Island.

431 West 33rd Street Sam Chang's McSam Hotel Group sold a 7,406-square-foot Chelsea parcel for $30 million to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, six months after buying it for $24 million.

The Forward, bought a 25,600-square-foot eighth floor office at 125 Maiden Lane for $11.5 million.

150 Delancey Street Sam Chang (McSam's ) latest purchase is a two-story commercial building at 150 Delancey Street on the Lower East Side, which he bought for $12.25 million,. Chang has filed for a permit to build a six-story hotel. McSam also bought the neighboring 152-154 Delancey Street for $3.5 million.

There were $8.17 billion in closed building sales in the year's first half, with an additional $5.62 billion in sales under contract. Closed sales were down 65.1 percent compared to the same time period year, when $23.42 billion in sales closed. Most of the activity was in Midtown, with 18 properties closed or under contract and class A office selling for an average of $972 per square foot. Midtown South had 11 transactions, with class A office selling for an average of $403 per square foot. Downtown saw three transactions at an average of $405 per square foot.

 
2008 Manhattan Office Market Vacancies


2008 Manhattan Office Market Vacancies

New York Office Leases:

  • Total Manhattan Office Class A vacancies increased from 12.35 million RSF to 13.07 million RSF.
  • Total Manhattan Office Market vacancies increased from 22.52 million RSF to 23.23 million RSF.
  • Total Manhattan Office direct lease vacancy increased from 18.65 million RSF to 19.06 million RSF.
  • Manhattan Office Sublease vacancy increased from 3.86 million RSF to 4.17 million RSF.
  • Total Manhattan Office Market vacancies increased from 22.52 million RSF to 23.23 million RSF.
  • Total Midtown Office vacancy increased from 12.37 million RSF to 13.04 million RSF.
  • Total Midtown South Office vacancy increased from 4.36 million RSF to 4.53 million RSF.
  • Total Downtown Office vacancy decreased from 5.79 million RSF to 5.67 million RSF.
  • Total vacant Office Direct Space in Midtown Manhattan increased from 10.38 million RSF to 10.83 million RSF.
  • Total vacant Office Sublease Space in Midtown Manhattan increased from 1.99 million RSF to 2.21 million RSF.
  • Total vacant Office Direct Space in Midtown South Manhattan increased from 4.03 million RSF to 4.15 million RSF.
  • Midtown South Manhattan Sublease vacancies increased from 0.33 million RSF to 0.38 million RSF.
  • Total Downtown Manhattan Office Direct Lease Space decreased from 4.24 million RSF to 4.09 million RSF.
  • Total Downtown Manhattan Office Sublease Vacancies increased from 1.54 million RSF to 1.58 million RSF.

Manhattan Retail Leases:

  • Total Available Manhattan Retail Space decreased from 1.10 million SF to 1.07 million SF.
  • Midtown Retail vacancy stayed at 0.25 million SF.
  • Midtown South Retail vacancies decreased from 0.76 million SF to 0.73 million SF.
  • In Downtown, Retail vacancy increased from 0.09 million SF to 0.10 million SF.

Manhattan Industrial Leases:

  • Total Vacant Manhattan Industrial Space decreased from 0.56 million RSF to 0.55 million RSF.
  • Midtown Industrial vacancy stayed at 0.18 million RSF.
  • Midtown South Industrial Space vacancies decreased from 0.38 million RSF to 0.37 million RSF.


Manhattan Office Leases
  • Enfatico leases 98,175 RSF at 11 Madison Avenue.
  • Parade Publications leases 89,413 RSF at 711 Third Avenue.
  • Omnicom leases 80,000 RSF at 200 Varick Street.
  • Cozen O'Connor leases 48,000 RSF at 45 Broadway.
  • The Regus Group leases 39,864 RSF at 1501 Broadway.
  • Bank Finland leases 35,000 RSF at 437 Madison Aveue.
  • Valentino USA leases 31,000 RSF at 11 West 42nd Street.
  • Hess Corp. leases 27,508 RSF at 1185 Sixth Avenue.
  • Skanska USA Building leases 24,391 RSF at 350 Fifth Aveue (Empire State Building).
  • DeVito/Verdi leases 22,500 RSF at 100 Fifth Avenue.
  • HQ Global Workplaces leases 22,370 RSF at 100 Church Street.
  • Bay Harbour Management leases 17,500 RSF at 375 Park Avenue (Seagram Building).
  • Return Path Inc. leases 17,485 RSF at 304 Park Avenue.
  • Laboratory Institute of Merchandising leases 16,500 RSF at 216 East 45th Street.
  • Russo Keane & Toner leases 16,003 RSF at 33 Whitehall Street.
  • Designer License Holdings leases 15,686 RSF at 205 West 39th Street.
  • P/S/L Group America leases 15,122 RSF at 1140 Sixth Avenue.
  • Strawberry Frog leases 15,000 RSF at 60 Madison Avenue.
  • SY Partners leases 13,500 RSF at 216-218 West 18th Street.
  • Solomon Schechter School of Manhattan leases 13,403 RSF at 805 Columbus Avenue.
  • Federal Knitwork Corp. leases 13,100 RSF at 1400 Broadway.
  • 3G Capital Management leases 13,000 RSF at 600 Third Avenue.
  • Hewitt Associates leases 12,851 RSF at 1500 Broadway.
  • ICICI Bank leases 11,006 RSF at 500 Fifth Avenue.
  • NW Johnsen & Co. leases 10,735 RSF at One Whitehall Street.
  • Travel Ad Network leases 10,499 RSF at 55 Broad Street.
  • Lone Star US Acquisitions leases 10,375 RSF at 888 Seventh Avenue.

New York City Retail Leases:
  • Marshall's leases 33,000 SF at 116th St and FDR Drive (East River Plaza).
  • West Elm leases 25,000 SF at 15 Central Park West.
  • Food Emporium leases 18,905 SF at 452 West 42nd Street.
  • The Donnell Library Center leases 13,124 SF at 485 Lexington Avenue.
  • David's Bridal leases 11,500 SF at 735 Sixth Avenue.
  • Chase Bank leases 11,000 SF at 15 Central Park West.
  • Hermes of Paris leases 6,700 SF at 690 Madison Avenue.
  • Archipelago leases 5,500 SF at 333 Hudson Street.
  • LMD Floral Designs leases 3,500 SF at 441 East 12th Street.
  • AT&T leases 3,424 SF at Bronx Terminal Market (The Bronx).
  • Duane Reade leases 3,160 SF at 385 Third Avenue.
  • Sleepy's leases 3,000 SF at 83 Maiden Lane.
  • AT&T leases 2,500 SF at 1553 Westchester Avenue (The Bronx).
  • Arthur Carter leases 2,400 SF at 50 East 78th Street.
  • AT&T leases 2,400 SF at 144 Delancey Street.
  • LaViolaBank Gallery leases 2,200 SF at 179 East Broadway.
  • Done Up Salon leases 1,800 SF at 1026 Sixth Avenue.
  • AT&T leases 1,500 SF at 33 Park Place.
  • The Vitamin Shoppe leases 1,450 SF at 655 Sixth Avenue.
  • AT&T leases 1,374 SF at 30 Rockefeller Plaza.
  • A Cut Above leases 1,300 SF at 143 West 69th Street.
  • Green Mansion Catering leases 1,200 SF at 40-42 West 8th Street.
  • Salon de Quartier leases 1,015 SF at 43 Washington St (Dumbo).
  • Earth Class Mail leases 1,000 SF at 230 Park Ave South.
  • Kun leases 1,000 SF at 210 East 34th Street.
  • Vino 313 leases 1,000 SF at 201 East 31st Street.

New York City Buildings Sold:
  • 1301 Sixth Avenue (Credit Lyonnais Building), a 45-story, 1.76 million RSF office building, was sold to Paramount Group for $1450.0 million.
  • 850 Third Avenue and 65 East 55th Street (Park Avenue Tower), 2 office buildings, 1.017 million RSF total, was sold to Shorenstein Properties for $930.0 million.
  • 405 Lexington Avenue (Chrysler Building), a 77-story, 1.035 million RSF office building, was sold to Abu Dhabi Investment Council for $800.0 million.
  • 175 Fifth Avenue (Flatiron Building), a 21-story, 183,449 RSF office building, was sold to Sorgente Group for $180.0 million.
  • 700 Broadway, an 8-story, 100,000 RSF office building, was sold to Weitz and Luxenberg for $70.0 million.
  • 2 West 56th Street, a 5-story, 16,200 RSF commercial building, was sold to Paramount Group for $62.0 million.
  • 240 West 35th Street, an 18-story, 162,000 RSF office building, was sold to Hidrock Realty for $58.0 million.
  • 42 Greene Street and 90 Grand Street, a Two 5-story buildings, 84,000 RSF total, was sold to Zar Brothers Realty affiliate for $49.0 million.
  • 202 West 40th Street, a 15-story, 38,000 RSF office building, was sold for $22.8 million.
  • 247 West 30th Street, a 16-story, 67,500 RSF office building, was sold to Infinity Office Properties; Katz Properties; Michael Sokolow for $15.85 million.
  • 32-34 West 29th Street, a 44,000 buildable RSF development site, was sold to Pioneer Management & Realty for $15.0 million.
  • 74 Leonard Street, a 5-story, 27,000 RSF mixed-use building, was sold to The Laboz family for $12.0 million.
  • 2293 12th Avenue, a 3-story, 22,100 RSF mixed-use building, was sold to Columbia University for $6.97 million.
  • 228-238 East 117th Street, a Development site, was sold for $6.4 million.
  • 25 Prince Street, a 4-story, 3,735 RSF mixed-use building, was sold to Manhattan user for $5.25 million.
  • 229 East 2nd Street, a Development site, was sold to a Brooklyn developer for $3.65 million.
  • 424 East 10th Street, a 12,750 buildable RSF development site, was sold for $3.55 million.


Legend

RSF-Rentable Square Feet
SF- Square Feet